October 28, 2026
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Coordinated AI slowdown to pace the frontier, proposed by Dario Amodei

Tracks Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's September 2026 essay 'We Must Pace the Frontier': its three-step proposal (embedded third-party evaluators, coordinated US lab standards with legislation or a narrow antitrust waiver, and escalating international coordination), endorsements by other lab leaders, political reactions including the White House and Congress rejecting a 'cartel' or waiver, related proposals such as Elon Musk's cross-lab testing idea, and the debate over whether it is sincere safety policy or regulatory capture.

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Updated

Overview

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a roughly 3,800-word essay, We Must Pace the Frontier, arguing that the industry should deliberately slow capability improvements so safety work can keep up. It proposes three steps. The first is third-party evaluators with permanent embedded access at Anthropic. The second is a critical mass of US labs adopting shared standards, enabled by legislation or a narrow antitrust waiver. The third is escalating international coordination, from a bioweapons ban to a full pause, which Amodei treats as least plausible. The essay lets training continue while more time goes to security, alignment and testing.

According to Moonshots hosts, Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis and Elon Musk endorsed it quickly, while President Trump called it a hoax and China called it a Cold War trick. Alex Wissner-Gross said the White House and the Speaker rejected any cartel or liability waiver, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said labs should not get a blank check on liability. Dave Blundin objected that the labs asked only for an antitrust waiver. Panel readings on 27 September called Anthropic's release of Opus 5.5 and opening of wet labs days later a revealed preference for full speed. On 29 September an Anthropic speaker on Latent Space gave a developer's reading, said every lab has signed and that other companies cosign the embedded-evaluator step, and said the later coordination steps are beyond his expertise. On 7 October, Alex read Altman's later remarks about accepting some bad things as a sign that the plan is dead, while allowing for triangulation. The word 'cartel' is Alex's, not the essay's.

On The Diary of a CEO, published 8 October, Palisade Research director Jeffrey Ladish offered two readings of the essay and the lab leaders' endorsements. On the cynical reading, the leaders do not care and are placating alarmed employees, whom the companies still need to make progress. On the sincere reading, the leaders also do not want to lose control and can see the race is not going well. Ladish said both motivations are real. He added that the leaders are the source of the problem as well as of any fix. In his view Amodei has integrity and will do what he says, but a US-China race to superintelligence is 'not a race that we can win'. He questioned an Anthropic policy head's reported remark that you cannot do safety from second place. These are Ladish's interpretations of public statements, not new facts about the essay.

What changed

Dates show when each podcast discussion was published.

  1. Interpretation

    Ladish, speaking on The Diary of a CEO, offered a cynical and a sincere reading of the leaders' support for pacing. The cynical one is that they are appeasing alarmed employees. The sincere one is that they also fear losing control. He said both are real. He praised Amodei's integrity but worried that a US-China race could override it, and he questioned the idea that safety requires staying ahead of China. This is his interpretation, not new information about the essay.

  2. Interpretation

    On the 7 October Moonshots episode, Alex Wissner-Gross recalled Altman's reaction to the essay as wanting in, and read Altman's later remarks about accepting some bad things as a sign the safety-cartel idea is dead, possibly with some triangulation. This is Alex's reading, and the word cartel is his.

  3. Interpretation

    On the 29 September 2026 Latent Space episode, an Anthropic speaker explained the proposal from a developer's view. He said the Hugging Face, wiki and RubyGems incidents show frontier software is not ready. He said outside evaluators embedded at Anthropic are the first unilateral step, that other companies are cosigning it and that every lab has signed. In his view the response has been better received than expected, even in America, though the later coordination steps are beyond his expertise. He also said Anthropic's safety investment is stretching and that the industry needs to pace a little more. These are his own interpretations; they do not resolve the political objections reported earlier.

  4. Interpretation

    At a live Moonshots event, the panel argued that the labs' actions contradict the essay. Peter Diamandis said Altman and Amodei had warned of an existential threat at the UN Security Council just before the Trump–Xi meetings, and he renewed the question whether risk warnings serve the labs' push for liability relief. Alex Wissner-Gross traced the attempted safety cartel back to OpenAI's founding coordination idea, though Diamandis disputed the word cartel. Wissner-Gross called Anthropic's release of Opus 5.5 and opening of wet labs days after the essay a revealed preference and the height of hypocrisy. The panel played Jensen Huang saying nobody builds more compute than those asking to be slowed down. These are the panel's readings; the essay, as described in the research, allows training to continue.

  5. New information

    Moonshots covered the essay's three-step proposal, a clip of Amodei asking government to supervise industry coordination, reported endorsements from Altman, Hassabis and Musk, and what Alex described as White House and congressional rejection of a safety cartel or liability waiver. The panel debated sincerity versus regulatory capture, and discussed Musk's All-In proposal that labs test each other's models before release.

  6. New information

    Moonshots reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the House Financial Services Committee that AI labs should not receive a liability exemption, and played a clip of him urging Congress not to consider one. Dave Blundin disputed the framing, saying the labs had only sought an antitrust waiver to discuss slowing down. Alex Wissner-Gross praised Bessent, Vlad Tenev tied the question of liability to the scale of possible harm, and Peter Diamandis argued labs must remain responsible for their agents.

Podcast discussions

Sources

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Version history

  • Oct 9, 2026 · Version 6

    Ladish, speaking on The Diary of a CEO, offered a cynical and a sincere reading of the leaders' support for pacing. The cynical one is that they are appeasing alarmed employees. The sincere one is that they also fear losing control. He said both are real. He praised Amodei's integrity but worried that a US-China race could override it, and he questioned the idea that safety requires staying ahead of China. This is his interpretation, not new information about the essay.

  • Oct 7, 2026 · Version 5

    On the 7 October Moonshots episode, Alex Wissner-Gross recalled Altman's reaction to the essay as wanting in, and read Altman's later remarks about accepting some bad things as a sign the safety-cartel idea is dead, possibly with some triangulation. This is Alex's reading, and the word cartel is his.

  • Sep 29, 2026 · Version 4

    On the 29 September 2026 Latent Space episode, an Anthropic speaker explained the proposal from a developer's view. He said the Hugging Face, wiki and RubyGems incidents show frontier software is not ready. He said outside evaluators embedded at Anthropic are the first unilateral step, that other companies are cosigning it and that every lab has signed. In his view the response has been better received than expected, even in America, though the later coordination steps are beyond his expertise. He also said Anthropic's safety investment is stretching and that the industry needs to pace a little more. These are his own interpretations; they do not resolve the political objections reported earlier.

  • Sep 27, 2026 · Version 3

    At a live Moonshots event, the panel argued that the labs' actions contradict the essay. Peter Diamandis said Altman and Amodei had warned of an existential threat at the UN Security Council just before the Trump–Xi meetings, and he renewed the question whether risk warnings serve the labs' push for liability relief. Alex Wissner-Gross traced the attempted safety cartel back to OpenAI's founding coordination idea, though Diamandis disputed the word cartel. Wissner-Gross called Anthropic's release of Opus 5.5 and opening of wet labs days after the essay a revealed preference and the height of hypocrisy. The panel played Jensen Huang saying nobody builds more compute than those asking to be slowed down. These are the panel's readings; the essay, as described in the research, allows training to continue.

  • Sep 25, 2026 · Version 2

    Moonshots reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the House Financial Services Committee that AI labs should not receive a liability exemption, and played a clip of him urging Congress not to consider one. Dave Blundin disputed the framing, saying the labs had only sought an antitrust waiver to discuss slowing down. Alex Wissner-Gross praised Bessent, Vlad Tenev tied the question of liability to the scale of possible harm, and Peter Diamandis argued labs must remain responsible for their agents.

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